For most investors, the very notion of being able to forecast the booms and the busts seems so far fetched they are just not willing to accept that it might just be possible.
Let me tell you how I first came across this amazing information some 13 years ago in 2007 that allowed me to sell real estate at the absolute peak of the the market, and protect myself from the carnage that was to follow in the real estate market in 2009-2012.
Cast you mind back to 2007 - the housing market was on fire and the world thought that real estate prices were just going to keep going up and up and up. It was party time.
I saw a notice for a lecture at The London School Of Economic Science & Philopsophy.
It was entitled 'BOOM - BUST - The Great Housing Depression of 2010 - Is Your House Safe?'
At the time, I was involved in building a property portfolio, and so I decided to attend.
To cut a long lecture short, the economist running the event detailed exactly how and why the housing market was going to crash and bottom out around 2010-2011.
In fact, he had published these dates as far back as in 1983 !
Now, I was so convinced, I actually sold assets and advised family to protect themselves agains the crash that was coming.
Naturally, nobody believed it - because the market was still so strong.
Well, we all know what transpired after the GFC of 2008.
In summary, we usually see around 14 years of the market moving mostly upwards, and then around 4 years moving down. There's normally a short blip arounf the 7 year mark - so that's where we are in 2020. It was expected and seen in the data from early 2020 and the end of 2019 that economies were slowing - way before Covid-19 spread globally.
The 18 years - sounds very simple. It is - and it isn't. The range has been from around 16 to 20 years in history, with the average around 18'ish. So 14 +4 is a good rule of thumb. Of course it never works out exactly - and a lot of people get the dates wrong because they don't know where to start counting.
Really studying the cycle is therefore extremely useful - as it means you can really understand what's happening - and not rely on media commentators and 'gurus' - who rarely call it right.
Since 2007, I have studied and learned from the same economists - and after 13 years of watching exactly what was forecast back in 2007 - transpire in front of my eyes, now understand intimately how the real estate cycle works - and what we can expect over the coming decade.
If you care to learn for yourself, please do get in touch. Trust me when I say that it's the most valuable information you are ever likely to invest in, if you're investing in real estate.
